If you’re wondering where the local real estate market is heading as we move into the heart of 2025, you’re not alone.
Many Buyers and Sellers are keeping a close eye on interest rates, the inventory level of properties listed for sale on the MLS® System and shifting market dynamics, some of which is the economic uncertainty driven in part by the current U.S. administration’s proposed trade tariffs. As with most areas across Canada, we are definitely seeing some notable changes across the Southern Georgian Bay real estate market.
Here’s a look at how the 1st Quarter (QTR) of 2025 performed based on data pulled from the MLS® System covering the Southern Georgian Bay area including Clearview Township, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Municipality of Meaford, The Blue Mountains, and Wasaga Beach.
More Listings, Lower Mortgage Rates – What Does That Mean for Buyers?
The big news this year is that interest rate cuts and a healthy supply of listings have created more breathing room for Buyers. There are more choices with a higher level of properties listed on the MLS® System for sale than we’ve seen since 2016 and that’s giving Buyers time to shop around. Unlike the robust market conditions of 2020/2021 when there was a high frequency of multiple offers with properties selling for over their respective asking prices, Buyers now have ample time to shop and compare, conduct a home inspection and to negotiate a fair versus inflated sale price that satisfies both them as well as their mortgage lenders.
Even with these improved conditions, sales in the month of March remained soft compared to this time last year. Let’s dig into the numbers for a clear picture of where things stand.
Key 1st Quarter 2025 Stats at a Glance
- March 2025 MLS® dollar volume: $97.3M
⬇️ Down 26% from March 2024 ($131.6M)
⬇️ Down 11% from March 2023
- March 2025 MLS® unit sales: 100 homes
⬇️ Down 33% from March 2024
⬇️ Down 28% from March 2023
Year-To-Date (YTD) 1st Quarter 2025 MLS® sales volume: $285.2M
⬇️ Down 8% from 2024, and just slightly (-1%) off 2023 levels
- YTD 1st Quarter 2025 MLS® unit sales: 326 properties
⬇️ Down 12% from 2024
⬇️ Down 2% from 2023
So while the year-over-year numbers are still trending downward, the pace of decline is slowing — a potential sign that the market is inching toward stability with balanced conditions for both Buyers and Sellers.
Inventory Is Up — and So Are Expired Listings
Here’s something we haven’t seen in a while: more inventory of both homes and condominiums on the market. As of the end of March, there were 1,081 active MLS® listings (excluding leases), which is up 59% from this time in 2024 — and the highest we’ve seen since 2016.
Conversely, with more listings and slower sales, properties are sitting on the market longer. The median MLS® days-on-market (DOM) for the 1st Quarter 2025 is now 39 days, up from 35 days last year — a far cry from the 7–8 day average during the height of the 2021 boom.
This shift has led to a spike in expired listings, which hit 550 at the end of March — up a dramatic 82% from last year. Many of these homes are relisted and appear as a “new listing” often at lower prices, a clear sign that pricing strategies must reflect today’s more balanced conditions.
Breaking Down Sales by Property Type
- Single-family MLS® home sales: 226 units
⬇️ Down 13% from Q1 2024 - MLS® Condo sales: 77 units
⬇️ Down 5% from Q1 2024 - Vacant land sales: 3 properties
⬇️ Down 77% from 2024
In most municipalities, MLS® sales of single family homes are down modestly, with the biggest drop seen in Collingwood (down 44%). Elsewhere, the changes are more subtle, with some areas seeing only a one-unit difference in sales compared to last year.
What About Prices?
The MLS® median residential sale price for 1st Quarter 2025 stands at $715,800, just under 2% higher than a year ago. While that’s a modest bump, prices remain well below the $875,000 MLS® median sale price seen in 2022.
The reduction in the MLS® median residential sale price is largely due to fewer high-end home sales those priced above $800,000 in 2025 versus 2024 despite increased inventory. See chart below.
Further, the MLS® list-to-sale price ratio sits at 96.6%, essentially unchanged from last year, but down significantly from the over-asking pricing frenzy of 2020/2021 and into early 2022 when sale prices were greater than 100% of their listed price.
Why Are More People Listing Right Now?
Many of today’s Sellers bought during the peak of 2020/2021 when interest rates were historically low. With 3-year mortgage terms now coming up for renewal, many homeowners are facing significantly higher rates — and reevaluating affordability. The Southern Georgian Bay market is also one where many properties are second homes ie: weekend chalets, cottages and resort style condominiums. When the market softens such as it has today, these are often the first properties that owners choose to dispose of again speaking to the issue of affordability.
It is worth noting that the Bank of Canada predicts that 60% of Canadians will face renewals in 2026, so we may continue to see motivated Sellers entering the market in the months ahead.
So, What’s Next?
We have clearly entered a more “balanced market,” one where supply and demand are roughly in equilibrium—neither Buyers nor Sellers have a strong upper hand. It creates an environment with relatively stable home prices and reasonable time on the market for listings to sell. With signs pointing to greater stability as we move into the spring and summer seasons, Buyers have more selection and less pressure, while Sellers need to price strategically to stand out from other similar properties.
With the federal government forecasting economic uncertainty and possible U.S. trade tariffs on the horizon, consumer confidence will be an important factor. But with interest rates coming down and inventory on the rise, there’s cautious optimism that 2025 could be a better year for real estate — especially for those who are well-informed, have realistic expectations and are in no rush to make a decision.
If you’re thinking of making a move this year — whether buying, selling, or just exploring your options — I’m here to help. With over 20 years of local experience and a professional background in market valuation, I’m happy to offer you sound advice tailored to your needs.
Contact Me for a no obligation consultation or your real estate needs, goals of objectives or call me direct at 705-443-1037. My only goal is to help you make a smart move in 2025.
RICK CROUCH – Broker, MVA (Market Value Appraiser – Residential)
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