by Rick Crouch
2025 Real Estate Market Update & Trends, Real Estate Buying, Real Estate Market Report, Real Estate Selling, Real Estate Statistics, Real Estate Values
If you’ve been watching the real estate market including here in Southern Georgian Bay and wondering, “Is it finally shifting in favour of Buyers?” — the short answer is yes. Interest rate cuts (and the expectation of more stability ahead) combined with a high level of inventory have created a market where Buyers have more options and negotiating power, and Sellers need a sharper plan than we did a few years ago when they appeared to be no such things as “asking too much.” Back in 2020 and 2021 most home and condominiums drew multiple offers and sold for over 100% of the asking price. In all but a few cases, those days are gone.
This update is based on total MLS® activity in Clearview Township, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, the Municipality of Meaford, the Blue Mountains, and Wasaga Beach.
Many people refer to me as a “numbers guy” and I am sharing herein what the numbers are telling us right now.
Let’s translate the stats into what they mean for real people:
1) Sales are down vs. last year — but not “dead.”
- November MLS® unit sales: 136 (down 42% from 238 in Nov 2024, but up 20% from Nov 2023).
- November MLS® dollar volume: $108.8M (down 47% from Nov 2024).
Thats “down from 2024” headline matters, but so does the fact that some activity is better than 2023. This looks less like a collapse and more like a market still finding its footing after the COVID-19 post-pandemic coupled with the historically low mortgage rate surge.
- YTD MLS® dollar volume: totals $1.530 billion down $645.4 million (30%) from 2024 and $687.8 million (31%) from 2023.
2) Inventory is still the big story — and it’s shaping everything.
- New MLS® listins in November: Totaled 380 units up 6% from last year. YTD new MLS® listings total 6,208 units also up 6% from 2024.
Even though active listings at the end of November were 1,309 (down 18% from 2024), inventory remains near a 10-year high. What does this mean?
- Buyers can be selective in most price segments there are plenty of choices.
- Sellers must compete harder for attention.
- Pricing and presentation matter a lot more.
3) We’re seeing the “price adjustment era” continue.
Expired listings were 590 at the end of November down from a year ago by 26%. Many of these will relist, and some Sellers are simply waiting for “better conditions.” But the the current marlket conditions nail the core reason so many listings don’t sell:
- Competition is stiff (lots of choices for Buyers)
- Overpricing is common (the market is less forgiving than in 2020/2021)
In 2020–2021, price reductions were rare. Now, price improvements happen weekly as Sellers reposition to meet the current market and attract Buyers.
4) Prices have softened, mostly at the top end.
The YTD median MLS® residential sale price is $717,000, down about 3% from $738,200 last year (prices rounded) and well below $811,955 at this time in 2022. The chart below points out something important: the median price moves month-to-month hence year-to-year based on the mix of sales, and fewer $1M+ sales has helped pull that median down.
5) Negotiation is “normal” again.
The overall YTD list-to-sale price ratio is 96.3%, compared to 96.8% last year — and well below the “anything goes” days of 2021/2022 when list-to-sale-price ratios were at times 102% to 103% of asking and more. In other words: we’re back to a more historic pattern where Buyers negotiate and Sellers need to be rational in both thier pricing expectations and offer terms. Too often when addressing the issue of price, a Seller(s) will say “we need to get…..dollars.” Perhaps they paid too much when they purchased, they’ve invested too much into their property or they have othjer financial obligations to meet creatoing reasons to set the price they “need.” While their goals may be admirable often they are not realistic.
- Single Family Home Sales: Every price segment is showing a reduction in the sale of homes from prior years with those priced over $1 million reflectoing the largest declines. These segments are also the ones with the highest levels of inventory listed for sale.
What this means if you’re buying
It is clearly a Buyer’s market in Southern Georgian Bay as in many markets across Canada where the inventory of homes listed for sale is high and I don’t expect that to dramatically change in the short term. The rate of inflation is holding steady, 2.2% in November which matched October. The impact of U.S. tariffs is still not fully known, this is causing uncertainty among consumers when it comes to major purchases like real estate. There is however a silver lining in every cloud if you look hard enough.
Here’s how Buyers can use that to their advantage without overplaying their hand:
- Be picky (in a good way): With more choice, you can prioritize layout, location, condition, and long-term resale.
- Use conditions intelligently: Financing, inspection, and status certificate reviews for condominiums are powerful tools when used properly.
- Negotiate based on facts: Days on market, competing listings, recent comparable sales, and visible price reductions all help you make a strong case.
- Don’t confuse “list price” with “market value”: Some homes are priced to sell, others are priced to “test the market.” Knowing the difference is everything.
My advice: In this market, the best buys tend to be homes that are properly priced but need clarity and confidence from a qualified Buyer. That’s where strong analysis and a clean offer strategy matter.
What this means if you’re selling
You can absolutely sell successfully in this market — but the approach is different than it was a few years ago.
Two realities for Sellers in late 2025 and into 2026:
1) You’re competing with a lot of choice
Even with active listings down from last year, Buyers still have plenty to look at. That means your home must win the comparison online before it wins the showing.
2) Pricing is now a strategy, not a wish
The market is punishing overpricing — and the expired listing count reflects that. The goal isn’t to “leave room to negotiate” and hope. The goal is to:
- price within the band where your most likely Buyer is shopping
- generate enough urgency to create competition
- avoid the slow-drip price reductions that chase the market downward
My advice: The most successful Sellers right now are the ones who treat pricing, staging, and marketing like a coordinated plan — not separate decisions.
A quick look at what’s moving (and what isn’t)
- Single-family homes: 1,352 YTD sales (down 30% from last year) — this explains why you’re seeing more “For Sale” signs that stay up longer.
- Condos: 329 YTD sales (down 10%) — holding up better than many expect.
- Vacant land: 15 sales (slightly up)
By municipality (YTD single family home sales):
Clearview (-16%), Collingwood (-38%), Grey Highlands (-43%), Meaford (-16%), Blue Mountains (-28%), Wasaga Beach (-29%).
This tells us the slowdown hasn’t been equal everywhere — and neighbourhood-level strategy matters more than ever.
How I help in a shifting market
Markets like this reward experience and discipline. As a Broker and Market Value Appraiser (MVA) with 20+ years in the profession, my job is to remove guesswork and help you make the smartest move—whether that’s buying now, selling now, or building a plan for the right timing.
What I do differently in this market:
- Pricing and valuation grounded in evidence (not optimism, need or fear)
- Local micro-market insight (street-by-street dynamics matter here)
- Negotiation strategy built for today’s conditions
- Clear game plans for Buyers and Sellers, including “what to do if it doesn’t sell in a reasonable time frame ie: 30 to 9p days”
If you’re thinking about making a move in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, the Blue Mountains, or Wasaga Beach or in the surrounding areas, I’m happy to help you interpret the market for your specific property or goals.
Contact me to learn more: [email protected] Direct line: 705-443-1037
NOTE: The author is a Broker, Market Value Appraiser-Residential with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada and a Past President (2008) of the One Point Association of REALTORS®.
This post is not intended to solicit homes or other properties already listed for sale.
