Windfall Shed, 140 Crosswinds Blvd., Windfall — Craigleith & The Blue Mountains

Come listen, connect, and put your questions to the Council candidates. Bring this briefing.

Follow the Money

THE BLUE MOUNTAINS · 2026 MUNICIPAL ELECTION How the Town funds itself — and why it is failing

WHY I PUT THIS TOGETHER

I put this together because I kept hearing strong opinions about The Blue Mountains’ finances and very few facts to anchor them. So I went to the source — the Town’s own audited financial statements and its council-approved budget — and simply followed the money.

Not to score points, and not to tell anyone how to vote, but because I believe residents deserve to see the whole picture, in plain language, before they mark a ballot this October. Every number in these pages is the Town’s own; all I’ve done is connect them and ask what they add up to.

What they add up to is what worried me enough to write it down. Day-to-day operating costs are outrunning the revenue that pays for them; the savings that quietly funded a decade of roads, pipes and buildings are nearly gone; and the bills now coming due land on the same roughly 9,000 households — a property tax on track to rise about 69% by 2030, a fixed water charge set to more than double, and, because Ontario law forbids an operating deficit, a further 42% simply to balance the books.

Meanwhile only about 4,000 of us voted last time, and the mayor’s race turned on 480 votes — a handful of ballots steering close to $30,000 per household in obligations.

That is why I did this: so that when you meet the candidates, you can ask the hard questions with the facts already in hand, and insist on specifics, not slogans.

— Ron Shulman

Every figure in this briefing comes from the Town’s own audited financial statements and its council-approved budget — not from opinion.

We begin with who pays for the Town and who actually votes, because the gap between them is why this matters. Then the money, in two parts.

Part 1, the operating picture, follows the day-to-day cost of running the Town — the staff, the compensation, and the structural deficit those costs are opening up, which by law must be closed with higher taxes.

Part 2, the capital picture, turns to the roads, pipes, plants and buildings: how the Town paid for them by draining its savings, and the debt and household bills now coming due.

Under each figure is a plain-language explanation and a set of questions for the candidates. They build as the picture comes into focus. Bring them to the meeting, and ask every candidate to answer with specifics, not slogans.

A briefing for candidates and residents

START HERE

Who Pays — and Who Votes

What this shows. Before the dollars, get the denominator right.

Cost and tax should be measured per taxable household — an estimated ~9,000 (the 2021 census counted 7,396 dwellings; we assume ~20% growth to 2026, to be confirmed against the tax roll) — not per the 9,390 census residents, and not per voter.

Property tax is one bill per home (the owner); water is billed to the occupant; and a single home can list several voters (every resident adult 18+, plus non-resident owners) yet still pays once.

That fixed base of payers sits under a far larger, uncapped pool of voters — of whom only a sliver actually turned out.

What this shows. It is easy to look at a 25.6% turnout and a 480-vote margin and conclude your vote doesn’t matter.

The opposite is true.

Precisely because so few people vote, each vote decides more — and what it decides is roughly $30,000 per household in obligations, a collapsed savings cushion, and a widening annual shortfall.

A few hundred votes are steering tens of thousands of dollars behind every home in town. The pages that follow show exactly what is at stake.

PART 1

The Operating Picture

Start with what it costs to run the Town every year. The day-to-day budget — staff and their compensation — is growing faster than the revenue that pays for it, and Ontario law (Municipal Act, s.290) forbids an operating deficit, so the gap must be closed by the tax levy. The test: can a town of about 9,000 households afford it?

Questions for the candidates

• Staffing rose about 63% while the permanent population barely moved. Which positions are essential, and would you freeze or reduce the complement?
• Fully-loaded compensation rose 10% in one year with no new hires, and the COLA is set at 5%. Do you support a 5% annual increase when residents’ incomes are not rising that fast — and if not, what would you set it at?

What this shows. When costs outrun revenue and the savings that used to cover the difference are gone, the result is an operating deficit that deepens every year.

This chart is the Town’s full funding-gap picture: it takes the operating squeeze from the previous page and also subtracts the investment income the Town is losing as its reserves disappear, and adds the new debt service coming due — so it turns negative sooner, and falls further.

From a reserve-propped surplus in 2025, the annual gap widens to about $10.3 million by 2028, and the accumulated hole reaches roughly $16.8 million.

Every dollar must be covered by borrowing or by higher taxes.

Questions for the candidates

• Your Town’s own model shows the operating gap reaching about $10 million a year by 2028 and $17 million accumulated. Do you accept these figures — and if not, what are yours?
• The 2025 surplus was propped up by one-time reserve draws that are now gone. What replaces them?

PART 2

The Capital Picture

Part 1 was the yearly squeeze; it lands on a Town that has already spent its cushion. For a decade the Town paid for its roads, pipes and plants by draining its savings, not by borrowing — and those reserves are now nearly gone.

Questions for the candidates

• In 2021 the Town held roughly $82 million in reserves; its own budget projects $6.7 million by end-2026. Where did about $75 million go — a deliberate plan, or a failure of oversight?
• The development-charge fund is on track to be exhausted by 2027, yet it is committed against tens of millions in contracts. What happens to those projects when it runs dry?
• The asset-management reserve is about $1.8 million against a $5.6-billion infrastructure base. How will you fund renewal of existing roads, water mains and facilities?
• What specific reserve targets will you commit to rebuilding, and what will you cut or raise to do it?

What this shows. Here is the part that has not hit the books yet. At the end of 2024 the Town’s audited long-term debt was just $5.24 million — remarkably low — because the capital program was paid by draining the reserves on the previous pages, not by borrowing. Now that the reserves are gone, the borrowing begins. Roughly $99 million in projects is already committed and under way; more than $150 million more is planned. About 90 cents of every dollar of it is water and wastewater — charged to your water bill, not your property tax. And two committed projects already ran far over budget: Thornbury by 92%, Craigleith by 54%.

Questions for the candidates

• The Town’s debt was only $5.24 million because it spent savings instead of borrowing. Now the savings are gone — how much will the Town have to borrow to finish the $99 million already committed?
• More than $150 million of further projects is planned. Which will you proceed with, defer, or cancel — and on what basis?
• Thornbury came in 92% over budget and Craigleith 54% over. What, specifically, will you change so the next project does not?
• Will you commit to publishing a costed 10-year capital plan that shows the cumulative debt, tax, and water-bill impact before any new project is approved?
• Given the Town’s financial situation — collapsing reserves and a looming operating deficit — how was it possible to authorize a new fire hall approaching $16 million ($15.8M), and would you have voted for it?

What this shows. When the savings run out, the bills come due — and they come together. The municipal property tax on a $1-million home rises about 69% by 2030, and the fixed water charge — paid by every property before a drop is used, and where roughly 90% of the coming debt lands — more than doubles. Property tax and water, climbing at the same time, on every household.

Questions for the candidates

• On a no-intervention path the municipal tax rises about 69% and the fixed water charge roughly doubles by 2030. Do you accept these projections? If not, show us your numbers.
• About 90% of the coming debt is water and wastewater. What is your plan to control that cost — and do you support moving it to a regional service board?

What this shows. And then the blow the law makes unavoidable. On top of both bills, a municipality cannot budget an operating deficit (Municipal Act, s.290), so the operating gap from Part 1 must be closed by the tax levy. Closing the projected $10.3 million gap by 2028 forces the municipal tax on a $1-million home from about $4,426 to $6,274 — a 42% rise, $1,848 more a year — for day-to-day operations alone, before any of the capital debt above. Property tax, water, and this: a household faces all three at once.

Questions for the candidates

• Balancing operations alone requires roughly a 42% municipal tax increase by 2028 — on top of the property-tax and water increases you have just seen. Will you commit to a cap, and name specifically what you would cut to stay under it?
• A typical household faces a rising property tax, a doubling water bill, and new operating taxes all at once. What is your concrete plan to keep this town affordable for the people who live here year-round?

FURTHER QUESTIONS

Issues We Haven’t Touched — Yet

Each question below could fill a briefing of its own — and may. But every candidate should be able to speak to them now, because together they decide whether The Blue Mountains can grow its way out of this rather than simply tax its way through it.

• Open for business. The commercial and industrial share of the tax base is small — roughly 8% — which leaves residential owners carrying the load. How will you attract investment and employers to grow the commercial base toward, say, 16% over your term, and what concretely would make the Town “open for business”?
• Housing people can actually afford. Beyond the single project at 171 King Street, what will it truly take to attract private investment in rental and attainable housing — and which barriers (servicing, approvals, fees, zoning) will you remove to get it built?
• The money we send to the county. A large share of the property tax collected here is passed through to Grey County rather than kept for local services. Why, and what will you do to keep more of residents’ tax dollars working here?
• The grants meant to backfill development charges. When development charges were cut and refunds were ordered, senior governments were meant to offset municipalities. How do those grants actually work, how much has the Town received, and does it come anywhere close to replacing the lost revenue?
• A Municipal Services Corporation (MSC). What role do you think a Municipal Services Corporation could play in reducing the Town’s debt — and would you actively pursue one?
• Swapping roads with the county. Grey County wants to transfer some of its roads to the Town. What are the costs and benefits of taking them on, and is it a good idea?

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