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Southern Georgian Bay Condominium Market: A Clear Look at 2025 — And What Comes Next

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As with real estate activity in general, the condominium market in Southern Georgian Bay has undergone a noticeable shift over the past few years. After exceptionally strong sales in 2020 and 2021, demand began to cool in the latter half of 2022, softened further in 2023, and remained subdued through both 2024 and 2025.

This adjustment hasn’t been unique to our area—condominium markets across Ontario, and especially in the Greater Toronto Area, have experienced similar conditions. Let’s take a closer look at what actually happened in 2025 and what it means for Buyers and Sellers heading into 2026.

This report is based on MLS® condominium sales in Clearview, Collingwood, Grey Highlands, Meaford, the Blue Mountains, and Wasaga Beach. It does not include new condominium sales by developers, which typically occur outside the MLS® System.

Condo Sales: Fewer Transactions, Less Urgency

As with the real estate market overall, condo sales taper off starting in the fall but as shown in the charts below, both unit and dollar sales in the condo segment ran at a level in most of 2025 below what we saw in 2024.

MLS® condo sales in December of 18 units were 2 units below the prior year while dollar volume for the month was up 8% stemming from the fact that some higher priced units sold thus offsetting the modest drop in the number of units sold.

At year-end 2025, MLS® condominium sales totalled 347 units, down 10% from 387 units sold in 2024. While that year-over-year decline may appear modest, the broader picture tells a more significant story.

MLS® Condo Sales by Price Range in Units Sold 2024 vs 2025

Dollar Volume Reflects the Change

Total MLS® condo dollar sales in 2025 reached $207.7 million, a decline of 18% from 2024.

When compared to previous years:

Dollar volume was down 58% from $494.3 million in 2021
And 38% lower than 2022, when low mortgage rates and lifestyle-driven demand were still fueling purchases among consumers either for full time occupancy or as a weekend getaway which is very typical in the Southern Georgian Bay area given the recreational amenities offered and the lifestyle it provides.

MLS® Condo Dollar Sales 2021 to 2025

Compared to the peak market of 2021, condominium sales in 2025 were down 56%, from 783 that year and were 25–26% lower than both 2022 and 2023 with unit sales back then of approximately 370 +/-. In short, demand has pulled back substantially from the pandemic-era highs.

This reduction in activity reflects several factors:

Higher mortgage lending rates. Historically low mortgages rates of 2% or less have been replaced with rates two to three times higher.
Greater economic uncertainty. Inflation while lower is still with us as seen with every visit we make to the grocery store. Adding to that is the trade tariffs imposed on us by the U.S.
Increased inventory and more choice for Buyers. As with single family homes, the inventory of condos listed on the MLS® System has risen sharply.
A shift away from the urgency we saw during COVID-driven demand. When supply was low, potential condo Buyers acted quickly driven by a fear that condo prices like homes would rise. Such is not the case today.

Further, thanks to the pandemic the ability to work remotely enabled some to cash in on their home in the Greater Toronto Area etc. allowing them to move north and the Southern Georgian Bay region along with others benefitted from that transition. Was it to last? Everyone seemed to think so but many have already been called back to the office.

The chart below shows the last 5 year history of condo sales by area.

MLS® Condo Sales by Area 2021 to 2025

The takeaway? For a variety of factors the market has changed resulting in fewer transactions and lower price points—particularly in mid-range condo segments—which have significantly reduced overall dollar volume not just last just in 2025 but in the past 5 years overall.

Prices Have Adjusted — Not Collapsed

Condo prices rose steadily through 2022, when the median sale price peaked at $617,250. Since then, prices have eased as demand softened.

The 2025 year-end median condo sale price was $518,400
Down 7% from 2024
The decline was driven largely by fewer sales in the $500,000 to $799,999 range

It’s important to understand that median pricing reflects the mix of units sold, not just price reductions. In today’s market, Buyers are being more selective, and higher-priced units are taking longer to sell—or not selling at all.

Negotiating Power Has Shifted

The 2025 median list-to-sale price ratio for condominiums was 96.2%, down slightly from 96.7% in 2024 and well below the near-100% ratios seen in 2021 and 2022.

MLS® Condo Median List-To-Sale-Price Ratios 2021 to 2025

This tells us two things:

Buyers now have room to negotiate
Accurate pricing matters more than ever

We are clearly in a Buyer’s market, with elevated inventory levels and less competition among purchasers.

Important Considerations for Condo Buyers & Owners

Condominium ownership today requires more careful analysis than it did a few years ago:

Mortgage rates remain much higher, directly impacting affordability
CRA rules can make the sale of rental condominiums HST taxable
Many municipalities now restrict short-term rentals (under 30 days), affecting owners who rely on rental income to offset costs

Because of these complexities, I strongly encourage Buyers and owners to seek qualified legal and accounting advice before making decisions.

As shown in the charts below, condominium sales in the six municipalities around Southern Georgian Bay area are concentrated largely in Collingwood and the Blue Mountains which together have in excess of 84% of the market with Wasaga Beach at just over 10%.

MLS® 2025 Condo Sales by Area as Percent of Market Share

Looking Ahead to 2026

Condominiums remain an attractive option for many buyers—whether for personal use, retirement living, or long-term investment.

With mortgage rates having come down modestly, we may see improved buyer interest in 2026, but conditions are unlikely to resemble the overheated markets of 2020–2022. Inventory remains high, and pricing will continue to reflect a more cautious buyer mindset.

In short: opportunity exists—but strategy matters. The chart below shows the number of condos listed for sale on the MLS® System as of this report which total 204 units versus 250 this time last year a drop of 18%. It’s early in the year and the inventory of units listed for sale will no doubt increase through the winter months as the ski season condo rental market gets close to winding down.

How I Can Help

With 25 years of experience as a Broker and Market Value Appraiser, I’ve guided clients through multiple market cycles—not just the easy ones. Whether you’re considering selling, buying, or simply want a clear understanding of today’s condominium market, informed decisions start with accurate, local insight.

If you have questions about condominium values, pricing strategy, or the market outlook for 2026, I’d be pleased to help. Email: rcrouch@sothebysrealty.ca Direct: 705-443-1037

Let’s talk about how today’s condo market can work in your favour.

Click here for a detailed copy click of my 2025 Year End Condo Communique’ Market Report.

NOTE: The author is a Broker, Market Value Appraiser-Residential with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada and a Past President (2008) of the One Point Association of REALTORS®.

This post is not intended to solicit homes or other properties already listed for sale.

Rick

RICK CROUCH – Broker, MVA (Market Value Appraiser – Residential)

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